Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has has something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
